Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.923362 1.076894 1.247648 1.451598 1.688567 1.955238 2.278171
2025-01-05 0.648999 0.845388 1.088472 1.411333 1.828939 2.351043 3.053899
2025-01-12 0.498660 0.702257 0.973996 1.362937 1.905412 2.635603 3.694329
2025-01-19 0.401131 0.602011 0.887098 1.320758 1.963841 2.882924 4.298277
2025-01-26 0.347937 0.551680 0.856568 1.345365 2.109534 3.259500 5.124637
2025-02-02 0.321309 0.535043 0.870341 1.433636 2.356648 3.810819 6.280518
2025-02-09 0.290379 0.505729 0.858478 1.477003 2.534998 4.273098 7.351779
2025-02-16 0.260503 0.472990 0.835279 1.496250 2.672751 4.681912 8.381938
2025-02-23 0.232354 0.438669 0.803879 1.495400 2.772958 5.035166 9.355465
2025-03-02 0.206688 0.404878 0.768363 1.481201 2.845234 5.344506 10.284046
2025-03-09 0.186744 0.378838 0.743182 1.481872 2.943206 5.708746 11.354802
2025-03-16 0.163303 0.342619 0.693882 1.429175 2.931001 5.862698 12.037156
2025-03-23 0.158276 0.343337 0.717640 1.526370 3.231275 6.663136 14.117014
2025-03-30 0.139633 0.313149 0.675480 1.483451 3.241298 6.889537 15.060054
2025-04-06 0.122825 0.284447 0.632488 1.432586 3.226989 7.062342 15.909250
2025-04-13 0.108773 0.259837 0.594944 1.388269 3.220345 7.248842 16.809265
2025-04-20 0.101660 0.250153 0.589035 1.414122 3.373571 7.800319 18.594762
2025-04-27 0.099762 0.252551 0.610827 1.506866 3.692454 8.759415 21.439394
2025-05-04 0.094816 0.246795 0.612771 1.552428 3.905134 9.499172 23.857379
2025-05-11 0.088781 0.237444 0.604842 1.572650 4.058436 10.116368 26.054044
2025-05-18 0.082175 0.225675 0.589393 1.571757 4.158415 10.615283 28.015941
2025-05-25 0.075506 0.212806 0.569526 1.556839 4.220469 11.027269 29.807109
2025-06-01 0.070215 0.202952 0.556224 1.557544 4.323582 11.555135 31.967903